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بررسی اثر تغییرات اقلیم و کاربری اراضی بر تغذیه منابع آب زیرزمینی منطقه لنجانات با تلفیق ANFIS و WEAP

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت محیط زیست دانشکده محیط زیست و انرژی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

2 دانشیار دانشکده محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

4 دانشیار دانشکده محیط زیست و انرژی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

5 استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران

چکیده

به­‌منظور تدوین و دستور­سازی راهبرد‌های توسعه پایدار منابع آب زیرزمینی، نگاه یکپارچه به تغییرات کاربری اراضی، تغییرات اقلیم، سامانه اجتماعی و پاسخ سامانه هیدرولوژیک به آن­‌ها، نیاز است. عدم توجه به ایجاد تعادل بین این متغیرها در تغذیه و تخلیه منابع آب زیرزمینی، منجر به بروز مشکلاتی از جمله فرونشست زمین، پیشروی آب­‌های شور، کاهش کیفیت آب‌­ها، افزایش هزینه­‌های پمپاژ و غیره در بیشتر آبخوان­‌های کشور شده است. در این پژوهش، منطقه لنجانات به‌­عنوان یکی از مناطق مهم حوزه آبخیز زاینده‌­رود به‌دلیل اندرکنش با رودخانه، وجود تغییرات کاربری اراضی و افزایش گسترده برداشت از آبخوان منطقه، به­‌عنوان مطالعه موردی انتخاب شد. نتایج پیش‌بینی دما و بارش در سناریوی خوش­‌بینانه و بدبینانه تا سال 2035 به­‌وسیله مدل LARS و نتایج بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی گذشته و آینده و محاسبه ضریب تاثیر کاربری (ضریب تعدیل) با استفاده از نرم‌­افزار­های IDRISI SELVA ،ENVI و مدل‌­های تلفیقی مارکوف و اتوماتای سلولی، برای بررسی میزان رواناب در آینده و سهم آن در تغذیه آبخوان وارد مدل مورد مطالعه (تلفیق WEAP و ANFIS) شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تغییرات اقلیم و تغییرات کاربری جزء پارامترهای تاثیرگذار بر مطالعات منابع آب زیرزمینی هستند. به‌­طوری‌­که پیش‌بینی می‌شود، در منطقه مورد نظر به‌دلیل کاهش میزان بارندگی و افزایش دما، میزان رواناب کاهش و به‌دلیل تغییرات کاربری زمین و افزایش برداشت آب‌های زیرزمینی، نفوذ رواناب و به‌دنبال آن تغذیه و تراز آب زیرزمینی کاهش یابد. میانگین حجم بارش در سال‌های مشاهداتی 194.17 میلیون مترمکعب برآورد شد که از این مقدار، 99 میلیون مترمکعب آن به آبخوان نفوذ کرده است. میانگین حجم تغذیه آب زیرزمینی پس از تاثیر ضریب تعدیل 1.051 به‌ترتیب در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه 107.09 و در سناریو بدبینانه 93.72 میلیون مترمکعب پیش‌بینی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of climate and land-use variables on groundwater recharge of Lenjanat region using WEAP-ANFIS

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afrouz Bagheri 1
  • Bahram Malekmohammdi 2
  • Banafsheh Zahraei 3
  • Amirhesam Hassani 4
  • Farzam Babaei 5

1 PhD student in Environmental Management, Faculty of Environment and Energy, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Environment, Campus of Technical Schools, University of Tehran. Tehran.Iran

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Campus of Technical Schools, University of Tehran, Iran

4 Associate Professor, Faculty of Environment and Energy, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

5 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

The formulation of strategies for sustainable groundwater resources needs an integrated view of land-use, climate changes, social system, and the response of the hydrological system. Negligence in creating a balance between these variables in charging and discharging groundwater resources has led to problems such as land subsidence, saline water advancement, reduced water quality, increased pumping costs, etc. in most of the country aquifers. In this study, the Lenjanat region was selected as a case study and one of the important regions of the Zayandehrud Watershed due to its interaction with the river, the existence of land-use changes, and increasing harvest from the regional aquifer. The results of temperature and precipitation prediction in an optimistic and pessimistic scenario until 2035 by the LARS Model and the results of examining past and future land-use changes and calculating the impact factor (adjustment coefficient) using IDRISI SELVA, ENVI, and CA-Markov were included in the study model (a combination of WEAP and ANFIS) to investigate future runoff and its contribution to aquifer recharge. The results showed that both climate and land-use changes have some impacts on water resources. In the case study, the amount of runoff decreases due to the decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature, and runoff infiltration, and subsequent feeding and groundwater level decrease due to land-use changes and increase in groundwater abstraction. The average rainfall volume was estimated at 194.17 million cubic meters in the observed years, of which 99 million cubic meters rechrged the aquifer. The average volume of groundwater supply after the effect of an adjustment coefficient of 1.051 was predicted in the optimistic scenario of 10.09 and the pessimistic scenario of 93.72 million cubic meters, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aquifer recharges
  • Land subsidence
  • LARS model
  • Response of the hydrological system
  • Sustainable development
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مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز
دوره 14، شماره 2
تیر 1401
صفحه 168-184
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هم رسانی
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