نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه جیرفت
3 استادیار، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه جیرفت
چکیده
یکی از اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی در دهه‌های اخیر، تغییرات چرخه‌های آبی در مناطق مختلف زمین بوده است. تبخیر و تعرق نیز به‌عنوان یکی از بخش‌های چرخه هیدرولوژی، دستخوش این تغییرات خواهد بود. لذا، در پژوهش حاضر، اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل در حوزه آبخیز هلیل‌رود، تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6 ،RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 با استفاده از مدل ریزمقیاس نمایی LARS-WG و خروجی مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM2 در دوره زمانی آتی (2040-2021) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و با استفاده از پارامترهای اقلیمی پیش‌بینی شده، میزان تبخیر و تعرق در سطح حوضه با استفاده از روش تورنت وایت برای دوره آتی محاسبه شد. بر طبق نتایج حاصل از مدل LARS-WG در سطح حوضه مورد مطالعه، میزان بارش در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش و میزان دما تحت تمامی سناریوها افزایش خواهد یافت. میزان تبخیر و تعرق نیز بر اساس وضعیت دما و بارش پیش‌بینی شده افزایش خواهد یافت. به‌طوری که نتایج بررسی وضعیت تبخیر و تعرق در سطح حوضه مورد مطالعه حاکی از افزایش میزان تبخیر و تعرق در دوره آتی (2040-2021) نسبت به دوره پایه می‌باشد که این میزان به‌طور متوسط در دهه آتی به میزان 3.4، 6.8 و 8.5 درصد به‌ترتیب تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6 ،RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 خواهد بود. بر طبق نتایج، بیشترین افزایش دما و تبخیر و تعرق و بیشترین کاهش بارش در سطح حوضه مربوط به سناریوی RCP 8.5 می‌باشد. از نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش می‌توان در مطالعات مربوط به مدیریت منابع آب، مطالعات کشاورزی و زیست‌محیطی استفاده نمود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Predicting future changes in potential evapotranspiration based on RCP scenarios in Halilrood Watershed
نویسندگان [English]
- Saeedeh Nateghi 1
- Elham Rafiiei sardooi 2
- Ali Azareh 3
- Farshad Soleimani Sardoo 2
1 Assistant Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of geography, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]
Changes in water cycles in different parts of the world is one of the effects of climate change in recent decades. Evapotranspiration, as the part of the hydrological cycle, will also undergo these changes. Therefore, in the present study, the effect of climate change on potential evapotranspiration changes in Halilrood Watershed, under RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using LARS-WG downscaling model and the output of the general circulation model of HadGEM2 in future (2021-2040) was studied and the rate of evapotranspiration at the basin scale was calculated based on the predicted climatic parameters using Tornthwaite method in future. According to the results of the LARS-WG model, in the study area, precipitation will decrease and the temperature will increase under all scenarios in future compared to the baseline period. Evapotranspiration will also increase based on the predicted temperature and precipitation. So that, at the basin scale, evapotranspiration will increase by 3.4, 6.8 and 8.5 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in future (2040-2021), respectively. According to the results, the highest increase in temperature and evapotranspiration and the highest decrease in precipitation at the basin scale is related to the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results of this study can be used in studies related to water resources management, agricultural and environmental studies.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Climate change
- Downscaling
- Halilrood Watershed
- Potential evapotranspiration
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