با همکاری انجمن آبخیزداری ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

2 استاد، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

3 استادیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

چکیده

رودخانه­‌ها همیشه در طول حیات بشری به‌­عنوان یکی از اصلی‌ترین منابع تامین آب آشامیدنی و کشاورزی مورد توجه جوامع انسانی بوده، در شکل­‌گیری تمدن‌های بشری بسیار موثر بوده است. رودخانه ارس یک رودخانه مرزی است که یکی از مهمترین منابع تأمین آب شرب بسیاری از شهرها و روستاهای اطراف آن می‌باشد. این پژوهش، با هدف ارزیابی کیفیت آب رودخانه ارس در حال حاضر و پیش‌بینی آن برای دوره آتی و تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP انجام پذیرفته است. در این پژوهش، داده‌های ماهانه دبی، بارش، TDS ،SO4 ،EC ،BOD ،Do ،COD ،NO3 و PO4 طی دوره آماری 1397-1374 با استفاده از شاخص کیفیت آب WQI تجزیه و تحلیل شد. همچنین، تغییرات میزان بارش و دما تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP پیش‌بینی شد. برای بررسی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر کیفیت آب رودخانه، بین پارامترهای بارش، دبی و پارامترهای کیفیت آب روابط رگرسیونی برقرار شد و با توجه به پیش‌بینی انجام شده برای بارش و دبی در دوره 2036-2017، شرایط کیفیت آب با شاخص WQI برای سناریوهای RCP8.5 ،RCP4.5 و RCP2.6 محاسبه شد. در ضمن، تاثیر تغییرات پارامترهای اقلیمی بر پارامترهای کیفی فسفات و نیترات با استفاده از مدل SWAT برای دوره آینده برآورد شد. نتایج بررسی‌های آماری نشان داد که میزان پارامترهای نیترات، فسفات و COD در هر سه سناربو افزایشی خواهد بود. همچنین، نتایج شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای فسفات و نیترات با استفاده از مدل SWAT نیز برای هر سه سناریو شرایط افزایشی را پیش‌بینی کرده است. نتایج تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر کیفیت آب با استفاده از شاخص WQI نشان داد که در شرایط پایه کیفیت آب در شرایط بد قرار دارد (شاخص WQI برابر 15.69) و تحت تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی و بر اساس سناریوهای RCP8.5 ،RCP4.5 و RCP2.6 مقدار شاخص WQI به‌ترتیب 11.17؛ 12.23 و 12.45 شده و کیفیت آب به خیلی بد تغییر کرده است که نیازمند توجه به بحث کیفیت رودخانه ارس و جلوگیری از ورود آلاینده‌ها می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the impact of climate change on Aras border river water quality using statistical methods, SWAT Model and WQISC Index

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behnam Farid Giglou 1
  • Reza Ghazavi 2
  • Siamak Dokhani 3

1 PhD Student, Faculty of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Kashan University, Iran

2 Professor, Faculty of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Kashan University, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Kashan University, Iran

چکیده [English]

Rivers have always been considered by human societies as one of the main sources of drinking water and agriculture during human life and have been very effective in the formation of human civilizations. Aras River is a border river that is one of the most important sources of drinking water in many surrounding towns and villages. The aim of this study is to evaluate the water quality of Aras River at present and predict it for the future period under RCP release scenarios. In this study, monthly data of discharge, precipitation, TDS, SO4, EC, BOD, Do, COD, No3, and Po4 during the statistical period of 1995-2018 were analyzed using WQI water quality index. Also, changes in precipitation and temperature were predicted under RCP release scenarios. To investigate the impact of climate change on river water quality, regression relationships were established between rainfall, discharge and water quality parameters and according to the forecast for rainfall and discharge in the period 2017-2036, water quality conditions with WQI index for scenarios. RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 were calculated. In addition, the effect of changes in climate parameters on the quality parameters of phosphate and nitrate was estimated using the SWAT model for the future. The results of statistical studies showed that the amount of nitrate, phosphate and COD parameters in all three scenarios will be increasing. Also, the simulation results of phosphate and nitrate parameters using SWAT model have predicted incremental conditions for all three scenarios. The results of the effect of climate change on water quality using the WQI index showed that water quality is in poor condition at baseline (WQI index is 15.69) and under the influence of climate change based on scenarios of RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 WQI value 11.17, respectively; 12.23 and 12.45 and water quality will change to very bad, which requires attention to the quality of the Aras River and the prevention of pollutants.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Emission scenarios
  • Nitrate
  • Phosphate quality
  • Sources of drinking water
  • Water quality index
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