با همکاری انجمن آبخیزداری ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان

2 دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان

3 استادیار پژوهشکده هواشناسی تهران

4 استادیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان

چکیده

فرایند بارش تحت تاثیر عوامل متعدد محیطی همچون رخدادهای گرد و غبار قرار گرفته، بر­هم­کنش این دو واقعه می‌تواند چرخه هیدرولوژیکی را تحت تاثیر قرار ­دهد. با توجه به افزایش قابل توجه رخدادهای گرد و غبار در نقاط مختلف کشور، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی اثر گرد و غبار روی تغییرات احتمالی بارش استان خراسان رضوی طی سال­های 2013-2000 انجام شد. بدین­منظور، روش آماری رگرسیون تاریخی که بر پایه مقایسه بارش مشاهده­ایی با بارش پیش­بینی شده می­باشد، استفاده شد. نه ایستگاه سینوپتیک به­عنوان ایستگاه هدف انتخاب شدند. معادلات رگرسیون برای پیش­بینی بارش ایستگاه­های هدف با استفاده از داده­های بارش روزانه ایستگاه­های باران­سنجی با روش کمینه مربعات به­­دست آمد. سپس، با داشتن مقادیر بارش مشاهده­ای و مقادیر پیش­بینی شده آن، شاخص نسبت آماری رگرسیون تاریخی برای هر ایستگاه هدف محاسبه شد. ارزیابی نسبت­های آماری هر ایستگاه به‌وسیله آزمون جایگشت مونت کارلو و با استفاده از نرم­افزار R انجام شد. از آن­جا که تغییرات رطوبت نسبی نقش مهمی در فرایند بارش دارد، ضریب همبستگی میان رطوبت نسبی و شاخص نسبت آماری هر ایستگاه­ محاسبه شد­. آزمون آماری همبستگی میان متغیرهای رطوبت نسبی و شاخص نسبت آماری برای ایستگاه­ها معنی­دار بود. آزمون­های جایگشت برای شاخص نسبت آماری ایستگاه­ها، متغیر بودن اثر گرد و غبار روی بارش را نشان داد. چنانچه کمترین شاخص نسبت آماری 0.8 مربوط به ایستگاه نیشابور با رطوبت نسبی 38 درصد و بیشترین شاخص نسبت آماری برای ایستگاه تربت حیدریه با مقدار 1.5 و رطوبت نسبی 59.45 درصد بود. در بررسی حاضر، واکنش بارش در برابر رخدادهای گرد و غبار متاثر از شرایط رطوبت نسبی بوده است. به­طور کلی، می­توان چنین نتیجه­ گرفت که در یک سامانه نمی­توان از اجزاء آن همواره رفتار ثابتی را انتظار داشت و از این­رو رسیدن به جمع­بندی­های جامع در موارد ذکر شده نیازمند مطالعات گسترده­تر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The potential impact of dust storms on precipitation in Khorasan Razavi Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Malihe Sadat Zarif Moazem 1
  • Rasool Mahdavi 2
  • Soheila Javanmard 3
  • Marzieh Rezaei 4

1 PhD Student, Faculty of Natural Resource, Hormozgan University, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Natural Resources, Range and Watershed Management of Hormozgan University, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Tehran Meteorological Institute, Iran

4 Assistant Professor of Natural Resources, Range and Watershed Management of Hormozgan University, Iran

چکیده [English]

The rain process is affected by numerous environmental factors such as dust events and the interaction of these two events can influence the hydrological cycle. According to various reports on increasing of dust occurrences in different regions, this study aimed to investigate the potential impact of dust storms on rainfall in Khorasan Razavi during 2000-2013. The statistical method of "historical regression" was used to investigate dust effect on rainfall, which is based on comparison of observed rainfall with its prediction. Nine synoptic stations were selected as target stations. Regression equations were used to predict precipitation of target stations using the daily rainfall data of the hydrometric stations using the Least Squares Method. Then, the statistical ratio index for historical regression was calculated for each target station based on the observed and predicted rainfall values. The statistical ratio of each station was evaluated by Monte Carlo of permutation test using R-software. Since relative humidity variations play important role in the precipitation process, the correlation coefficient was calculated between the relative humidity and the statistical ratio index of each target station. The statistical test of correlation between relative humidity variables and the statistical ratio of historical regression were significant for all stations. The permutation tests for each station statistical ratio index showed a variable effect of dust on rainfall. The lowest statistical ratio index of 0.8 belonged to the Neyshabur Station with a relative humidity of 38%, whereas the highest statistical ratio index of 1.5 was found for Torbat Heydarieh Station with a relative humidity of 59.45%. In the present study, precipitation response to dust events was affected by relative humidity conditions. In a general conclusion, components of hydrological cycle does not have constant response to environmental variables and therefore, obtained comprehensive conclusions in atmospheric processes need more extensive studies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Neyshabur Station
  • Permutation test
  • Rainfall amount
  • Relative humidity
  • Torbat Heydarieh Station
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