نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 استادیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 گروه علم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه فریدریش شیلر ینا، آلمان
چکیده
اثرات هیدرولوژیکی تغییر اقلیم چالش بزرگی برای برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت منابع آب است. تعیین اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی، پیش‌نیاز تدوین استراتژی‌های سازگاری با اثرات تغییر اقلیم می‌باشد که لازمه مواجه با بحران کم‌آبی در آینده است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رژیم هیدرولوژیکی حوضه رودخانه چهل‌چای در استان گلستان می‌باشد. برای شبیه‌سازی فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی حوضه از مدل توزیعی و فرایندی J2000 استفاده شد. در این راستا، مدل با استفاده از داده‌های دبی روزانه ایستگاه خروجی حوضه برای دوره زمانی 2014-2002 واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. به‌منظور تعیین اثر تغییر اقلیم، از آخرین خروجی‌های هفت مدل اقلیمی CanESM2 ،CCSM4 ،BBC-CSM1.1 ،CESM1-BGC CESM1-CAM5 ،ICHEC- EC-EART و MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR برای دو سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای دوره 2100-2071، استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که میانگین افزایش دمای بیشینه حوضه برای مدل‌های مختلف در سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دوره 2100-2071 به میزان 2.6 و 4.7 درجه و دمای کمینه به میزان 2.4 و 4.5 درجه سانتی‌گراد می‌باشد. همچنین، میانگین تغییرات مقدار بارندگی برای این سناریوها به میزان 1.35 درصد افزایش و 0.6 درصد کاهش می‌باشد. این تغییرات باعث افزایش تبخیر و تعرق به میزان 9.6 و 16.7 درصد و کاهش دبی حوضه به میزان 4.2 و 3.2 درصد می‌شود. نتیجه این تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی به‌صورت کاهش جریان حوضه در آوریل تا ژوئن نمایان می‌شود که برای سناریوی RCP 8.5 تا اکتبر ادامه دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Hydrological response to future climate changes in Chehelchay Watershed in Golestan Province
نویسندگان [English]
- Reza Chamani 1
- Mahmood Azari 2
- Sven Kralisch 3
1 MSc, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
3 Geographic Information Science, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany
چکیده [English]
The hydrological effects of climate change are a great challenge for water resources management. Determining climate change impacts on hydrological processes is a prerequisite for adaptation strategies to climate change; which in turn is necessary for water scarcity crisis in future. The purpose of this research is to determine climate change impacts on hydrological regime of the Chehelchay watershed in Golestan province. J2000 distributed process based model was used for simulation of the hydrological process. Output results of seven climate models including CanESM2, CCSM, BBC-CSM1.1, CESM1-BG, CESM1-CAM5, ICHEC- EC-EART and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR for two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2071-2100 were used for climate change impact analysis. Study results revealed that the maximum temperature for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2071-2100 will increase by 2.6 and 4.7 °C and the minimum temperature will increase by 2.4 and 4.5 °C respectively by the end of the 21st century. In addition, precipitation for RCP 4.5 will increase by 0.6 percent and for RCP 8.5 will decrease by 0.6 percent. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the hydrological regime. In particular, evapotranspiration will increase by 9.6 and 16.7 percent and stream flow will decrease by 4.2 and 3.2 percent. The results of the hydrological changes will cause a decrease in stream flow in April –June and for RCP 8.5 will be continued till October.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Hydrological modeling
- J2000
- Climate model
- Stream flow
- Water resources management
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