نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکترای رشته آب و هواشناسی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران
چکیده
هدف از پژوهش حاضر، پیش‌بینی و بررسی تعداد روزهای پدیده گرد و غبار ایستگاه‌های منتخب استان خوزستان با استفاده از مدل‌های باکس-جینکیز است. پژوهش حاضر در هشت ایستگاه منتخب از استان خوزستان به‌منظور مقایسه دقت مدل باکس-جنکینز و پیش‌بینی مقدار پدیده گرد و غبار انجام شده است. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Minitab 17 مدل سری زمانی باکس-جنکینز تعداد روزهای گرد و غبار ماهانه بررسی و بهترین مدل برازش داده شد، صحت و دقت مدل‌ها به کمک نرمال بودن توزیع مانده‌ها، فرض ثابت بودن واریانس، نمودارهای مربوط به مانده‌ها در طول زمان، آزمون پرت-مانتو تأیید شد و در پایان از نرم‌افزار ArcGIS 10.4 برای ترسیم نقشه‌های خروجی استفاده شد. نتیجه این پژوهش نشان داد، الگوهای مناسب ماهانه به‌ترتیب برای رامهرمز، آغاجاری، بهبهان، آبادان، دزفول، امیدیه، اهواز، و مسجد سلیمان بترتیب (1،1،1)(0،1،2) ARIMA، (1،1،1)(1،1،2) ARIMA، (2،1،1)(0،1،3) ARIMA، (2،1،1)(0،1،1) ARIMA، (2،1،1)(0،1،2) ARIMA، (1،1،1)(1،1،3) ARIMA (1،1،1)(0،1،3) ARIMA (1،1،1)(0،3،4) ARIMA هستند که از دقت خوبی برای پیش‌بینی گرد و غبار برخوردار بودند. همچنین، پیش‌بینی تعداد روزهای پدیده گرد و غبار برای سال‌های 2018 تا 2027 نشان داد که از میان شهرهای استان خوزستان شهرهای آغاجاری، آبادان و مسجد سلیمان بیشتر با پدیده گرد و غبار مواجه هستند و این امر توجه بیشتر مسئولان و برنامه‌ریزان این شهرها را در مواجه با این پدیده طلب می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Review and forecast of the phenomenon of dust in Khuzestan Province using Box-Jenkins time series model
نویسندگان [English]
- Golamabas Falah Qalhar 1
- Rasol Sarvestan 2
1 Associate Professor, Climatology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
2 PhD Student, Climatology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
چکیده [English]
The aim of this study is to predict and verify the number of days of dust phenomenon selected stations in Khuzestan Province using Box-Jencks model. Study in eight selected stations of the province to compare the Box-Jenkins model and predict the effect of dust has been done. Using the Minitab 17 software Box-Jykyz time series model, number of days of dust monthly was checked and best models were fitted, the accuracy of the model using normal distribution of residuals, assuming constant variance, charts left over time, Mvntv Perth test was confirmed. Finally, Arc-GIS10.4 software was used for output mapping. Results showed that the best monthly pattern for Ramhormoz, Aghajari, Behbahan, Abadan, Dezful, Omidiyeh, Ahwaz and Masjed Soleiman are ARIMA (2,0,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (3,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (1,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (3,1,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (3,0,1)(1,1, 1) and ARIMA (4,0,3) (1,1,1), respectively. These models have a good accurately for predicting dust and the numbers of dusty days for 2018 to 2027. Also, results showed that Agajari, Abadan and Masjed Soleiman are more exposure with dust phenomena in Khuzestan Province that needs for further attention to city officials and planners in facing with this phenomena.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- ARIMA
- Pert-Manto test
- Planning
- Round dust forecast
- Selected station
- Time series model
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