نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
2 دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
چکیده
به‌دلیل کمبود اطلاعات در اکثر حوزه‌های آبخیز، بسیاری از محققین برای مطالعات هیدرولوژیکی و سیل‌خیزی به استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل‌های مکانی در سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی روی آورده‌اند. پژوهش حاضر به‌منظور تهیه نقشه‌های احتمال و حساسیت سیل با استفاده از روش نسبت فراوانی، از پارامترهای طبقات ارتفاعی، درصد شیب، انحنای زمین، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، توان آبراهه، میانگین بارندگی، فاصله از رودخانه، سنگ‌شناسی، نوع خاک و کاربری اراضی در حوزه آبخیز پل دوآب شازند انجام شد. ابتدا نقشه رقومی تمامی پارامترها با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای Arc GIS 10.1 و SAGA GIS 2 با فرمت رستری تهیه شدند. برای تهیه نقشه کاربری اراضی از تصویر ماهواره IRS-1C و نرم‌افزار ENVI 4.8 و الگوریتم حداکثر احتمال استفاده شد. سپس موقعیت جغرافیایی 95 نقطه سیل‌گیر در منطقه بر اساس اطلاعات سیلاب‌های اردیبهشت ماه 1382، اردیبهشت ماه 1383 و اسفند ماه 1383 تهیه شد. نقاط به‌صورت تصادفی به گروه‌هایی متشکل از 67 نقطه (70 درصد) و 28 نقطه (30 درصد) به‌ترتیب برای واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی تقسیم شدند. مجموعه نقاط گروه واسنجی به‌عنوان متغیر وابسته و پارامترهای تاثیرگذار بر سیل به‌عنوان متغیر مستقل به روش نسبت فراوانی معرفی شدند. سپس احتمال رخداد سیل برای هر طبقه از هر پارامترها محاسبه شد. در نهایت وزن‌های به‌دست آمده برای هر طبقه در سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) در لایه‌های مربوطه اعمال شده و با استفاده از توابع روی‌هم‌گذاری، نقشه‌های حساسیت و احتمال سیل منطقه مورد مطالعه به‌دست آمد. بر اساس نقشه پتانسیل، منطقه به پنج طبقه با حساسیت خیلی زیاد، زیاد، متوسط، کم و خیلی کم تقسیم شد. نتایج هیستوگرام ارزیابی روش نسبت فراوانی نشان داد که احتمال حضور نقاط سیل‌گیر گروه اعتبارسنجی داده‌ها در طبقه خیلی زیاد برابر با 67.86 درصد و برای طبقه خیلی کم این عدد برابر با صفر می‌باشد. بنابراین هیستوگرام مربوطه تاییدکننده روش نسبت فراوانی در تهیه نقشه حساسیت سیل در منطقه مورد پژوهش می‌باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Flood susceptibility and probability mapping using frequency ratio method in Pol-Doab Shazand Watershed
نویسندگان [English]
- Hamid Darabi 1
- Kaka Shahedi 2
- Mehdi Mardian 1
1 PhD Student, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran
چکیده [English]
Because of data lacking in the most of watersheds, many researchers applied spatial analysis in GIS environment to study the hydrological and flooding condition. This study aims to map flood susceptibility through frequency ratio technique using some parameters such as digital elevation technique, slope, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, average rainfall, distance from river, geology, soil type and land use in Pole-Doab, Shazand Watereshed, Makazi Province, Iran. First, digital map of all of the parameters were prepared based on raster format using Arc GIS 10.1 and SAGA GIS2 softwares. To prepare land-use map IRS-1C satellite image, ENVI 4.8 software and maximum likelihood algorithm were applied. Then flood inventory map was produced by mapping 95 flood prone locations in the study area using documented information on the May-2003, May-2004 and March-2004 floods. These 95 locations divided into two groups including 67 points (70%) and 28 points (30%) for calibration and validation, respectively. For calibration, flood prone locations defined as dependent variable and ten parameters that are affecting flooding condition were introduced to frequency ratio as independent variables. Then flood probability was determined for each class of each parameter. Finally, obtained weights for each class in GIS were implemented in corresponding layers and using the overlay algorithm, susceptibility and probability maps were prepared. Based on the susceptibility map, study area was divided into 5 classes as very high, high, medium, low and very low sensitivity. The findings of the assessment of frequency ratio histogram indicated that the likelihood of very high and very low flooding classes are equal to 67.86 and zero percent, respectively. Therefore, the obtained frequency ratio histogram confirms the adequacy of the implemented method in flood susceptibility and probability mapping for the case study.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Arc GIS
- Frequency Ratio
- Histogram
- maximum likelihood
- SAGA GIS 2
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