نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل
2 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل
3 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد
چکیده
در این پژوهش، دورنمای تبخیر-تعرق مرجع (ETo) بخش جنوبی حوزه آبخیز رودخانه ارس تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از ریزگردان SDSM ترسیم شد. برای این منظور، از داده‌های هواشناسی ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک منتخب واقع در این حوضه استفاده شد. پس از دریافت خروجی ریزگردانی شده برای پارامترهای مورد نیاز برای برآورد ETo به روش پنمن-مانتیث فائو شماره 56 برای آینده نزدیک (2021 تا 2050 میلادی) اقدام به محاسبه آن شد. در این راستا، از داده‌های روزانه بازتحلیل NCEP و داده‌های ایستگاهی کمینه و بیشینه دما، سرعت باد، رطوبت نسبی و ساعات آفتابی در مقیاس روزانه و نیز داده‌های خروجی مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCPs برای تولید داده‌های ایستگاهی آینده برای تخمین ETo حوضه ارس استفاده شد. ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه شامل اهر، اردبیل، پارسآباد، جلفا، خوی و ماکو بود و دوره پایه برای داده‌های مورد نظر 2005-1985 در نظر گرفته شد. ابتدا، کارایی SDSM در شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای مورد نیاز برای تخمین ETo از طریق مقایسه داده‌های شبیه‌سازی شده NCEP با داده‌های ایستگاهی ارزیابی شد. مقایسه آن‌ها نشان‌دهنده کارایی مناسب مدل در شبیه‌سازی داده‌ها بود. لذا، پارامترهای اقلیمی با استفاده از مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP برای آینده شبیه‌سازی شده، پس از محاسبه مقادیر ماهانه آن‌ها، برای تخمین ETo حوضه به CROPWAT وارد شده و مقدار و روند متغیر برای سه دهه آتی محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد، ETo حوضه در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه به‌طور متوسط حدود هفت میلی‌متر در سال افزایش خواهد یافت. برحسب ایستگاهی نیز ETo در پارسآباد (102 میلی‌متر) و جلفا (66 میلی‌متر) افزایشی خواهد بود که این افزایش به معنی افزایش نیاز آبی گیاهان در آینده نیز است. همچنین، روند آتی ETo در خوی، ماکو، اهر و اردبیل کاهشی خواهد بود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Evaluation perspective of the Aras Basin reference crop evapotranspiration in future climatic condition under RCPs scenarios
نویسندگان [English]
- Bromand Salahi 1
- Mahnaz Saber 2
- Abbas Mofidi 3
1 Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil
2 PhD. Student of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil
3 Assistant professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad
چکیده [English]
In this study, the perspective of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) in the southern part of the Aras River Basin under climate change condition was drawn using SDSM downscaling. For this purpose, meteorological data of selected synoptic stations located in this basin were used and after receiving the downscaling outputs for the parameters required for estimating ETo by Penman-Monteith FAO-56, basin ETo was calculated for the near future (2021-2050). In this regard, daily reanalysis NCEP data and station daily data include: maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours as well as output data on CanESM2 model under RCPs scenarios were used to generate future station data for estimate Aras Basin ETo. The studied stations included: Ahar, Ardabil, Parsabad, Jolfa, Khoy and Makoo and the base period for the data was considered 1985-2005. First, the efficiency of SDSM in simulating the parameters required for ETo estimation was evaluated by comparing NCEP simulated data with station data. Their comparison indicated the appropriate performance of the model in simulating data. Therefore, climatic parameters were simulated using the CanESM2 model under RCPs scenarios for the future. After calculating their monthly values, in CROPWAT was entered to estimate the basin ETo and trend of the variable for the next three decades were calculated. The results showed that the basin ETo in the future period compared to the base period will increase by an average of about 7 mm per year. In terms of stations, there will be an increase in Parsabad (102 mm) and Jolfa (66 mm). This increase also means an increase in the water needs of plants. Also, the future trends of ETo in Khoy, Makoo, Ahar and Ardabil will be decreasing.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Climate change
- Climatic models
- Downscaling
- Penman-Monteith FAO
- SDSM
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