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اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مقدار رواناب تولیدی در منطقه هشت شهر شیراز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

امروزه اثرات تغییر اقلیم در چرخه‌ هیدرولوژی حوضه و اثر در تغییرات رژیم هیدرولوژیکی، موضوع مهم پژوهشی شده است. عموما برای تعیین کمیت تاثیر تغییرات اقلیم بر رژیم هیدرولوژیکی، نتایج مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو (GCMs) همراه با مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی استفاده می‌شوند. در این تحقیق، داده‌های روزانه دماهای کمینه و بیشینه، بارش و ساعات آفتابی ایستگاه سینوپتیک شیراز با استفاده از مدل آماری LARSE_WG6.0 شبیه‌سازی شد و پس از اطمینان از کارایی این مدل در شبیه‌سازی متغیرهای هواشناسی مذکور در حوزه آبخیز شیراز، برای بررسی تاثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب منطقه مورد مطالعه داده‌های دو سناریوی مدل HadGEM2-ES در دو دوره با مدل آماری‌ LARSE_WG کوچک مقیاس شد. در مرحله بعد، رواناب منطقه با استفاده از مدل SWMM شبیه­‌سازی شد و نتایج آن با رواناب اندازه‌گیری شده مقایسه شد. بدین منظور، دو واقعه برای واسنجی و یک واقعه برای اعتبارسنجی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بر اساس آماره‌های همبستگی (R)، ریشه مربعات خطا (RMSE) و ضریب کارایی نش-ساتکلیف (NSE) مدل از کارایی مناسبی برای شبیه‌­سازی رواناب برخوردار است. سپس، داده‌های بارش مدل  LARSE_WG به مدل SWMM وارد شده و تغییرات رواناب در دوره‌های آتی نسبت به دوره پایه محاسبه شد. طبق سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 پیش‌­بینی می‌شود که بارش در دوره 2040-2021، 16.10 تا 8.88 و در دوره ‌2080-2061، 14.49 و 19.73 درصد افزایش خواهد داشت. بنابراین، با فرض عدم تغییر کاربری در سطح منطقه هشت شهر شیراز از این لحاظ حجم رواناب 13.35 تا 21.48 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of climate change on runoff produced in some part of Shiraz

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeideh Khaloei 1
  • Shahram Khalighisigaroodi 2
  • khaled ahmadauli 3
  • arash malekian 2

1 MSc of Watershed Management,, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran, Karaj, Tehran

چکیده [English]

Recently, the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and regime have become an important research topic. The results of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) together with hydrological models are used to determine the impacts of climate change on hydrologic regime. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and sunshine hours of the Shiraz synoptic station were simulated using the LARSE_WG6.0 statistical model. The efficiency of the model for simulating climate variables was determined using historical data of Shiraz station. To investigate climate change on runoff, two scenarios of the HadGEM2-ES model for two periods were downscaled using the LARSE_WG model. In the next step, runoff was simulated using the SWMM model and its results were compared with the measured runoff. For this purpose, 2 events were used for calibration and one event for validation. Based on coefficient correlation (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the model has a suitable efficiency for simulating runoff. Then, LARSE_WG downscaled data were used in SWMM model and the runoff changes in future periods compared to present. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, precipitation will increase from 16.10 to 8.88% in 2021-2040 and 14.49% and 19.73% in 2061-2080. Therefore, assuming no change in landuse in Shiraz district 8, the volume of runoff will increase from 13.35 to 21.48 percent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate scenarios
  • General atmospheric circulation
  • Runoff simulation
  • Runoff volume and depth
  • SWMM Model
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مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز
دوره 15، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 55-67
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هم رسانی
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