نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی سینوپتیک، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
2 استاد اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
3 استادیار، پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم پدیدهای تأثیرگذار بر بسیاری از فرایندهای طبیعی از جمله چرخه هیدرولوژی است. تبخیر و تعرق نیز به‌عنوان یکی از بخشهای چرخه هیدرولوژی، دستخوش این تغییرات خواهد بود. بهدلیل اهمیت تبخیر و تعرق در مدیریت منابع آب و برنامهریزی کشاورزی، پژوهش حاضر، با هدف بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر این پارامتر مهم و تاثیرگذار، در دشت مغان انجام شده است. بدینمنظور، از مدل گردش عمومی جوی و اقیانوسیHadGEM2 تحت سناریوهای RCPs و ریزمقیاس گردان Lars-WG6 در دو دوره 2030-2011 و 2060-2030 استفاده شد. همچنین، برای محاسبه تبخیر و تعرق نیز از روشهای پنمن-مانتیث و هارگریوز–سامانی استفاده شده است. این پژوهش، نشان داد که تبخیر و تعرق محاسباتی با روش پنمن-مانتیث در دشت مغان در هریک از سناریوها و در دورههای 2030-2011 و 2060-2030 از شش الی تا 4/8 درصد نسبت به سالهای مشاهداتی افزایش خواهد داشت. همچنین، مشاهده شد که تبخیر و تعرق محاسباتی از روش هارگریوز-سامانی در دشت مغان، در هر یک از سناریوها و در دورههای 2030-2011 و 2060-2030 از 5/4 الی 7/7 درصد نسبت به سالهای مشاهداتی افزایش خواهد یافت. این افزایشها موجب افزایش نیاز آبی شبکههای آبیاری و زهکشی مغان و خدآفرین در ماههای پرنیاز میشود که اتخاذ راهکارهای مناسب برای سازگاری با شرایط تغییر اقلیم را ایجاب میکند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessment effects of climate change on changes in potential evapotranspiration in the Moghan Plain by RCPs
نویسندگان [English]
- Abdorrahim Fazeli khiavi 1
- Bromand Salahi 2
- Masoud Goodarzi 3
1 PhD Student, Synoptic Climatology, Faculty of Human Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Human Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Iran
چکیده [English]
Climate change is an effective phenomenon on many natural processes, including hydrologic cycle. The evapotranspiration as one of the parts of the hydrologic cycle will be at the forefront of these changes. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration in water resources management and agricultural planning, the present study was conducted to investigate the effect of climate change on this parameter in Moghan Plain. For this purpose, the HadGEM2 atmospheric and oceanic circulation model was used under RCPS and Lars-WG6 downscaling in 2011-2030 and 2030-2060 periods. Also, Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani methods were used to calculate evapotranspiration. This study showed an increase of 6 to 8.4% of calculated evapotranspiration with Penman-Monteith method in each of the scenarios in 2030-2011 and 2030-2060 periods compared to the observed years. Also, calculated evapotranspiration of the Hargreaves-Samani method will increase from 4.5 to 7.7% in each scenario in 2030-2011 and 2030-2030 periods compared to the observation years. These increases affects on water demands of Moghan and Khodafarin irrigation and drainage networks in the maximum months, which requires appropriate solutions to adapt to climate change conditions.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Atmospheric and oceanic circulation model
- Hargreaves-Samani
- Hydrologic cycle
- Lars-WG6 downscaling
- Penman-Monteith
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