Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Masters, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran
3 Scientific member (Training instructor) of Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran
Abstract
Climate change and global warming can directly affect climate extremes and the temporal and spatial variations of these events. In this study, in order to analyze the trend of near-future climate extreme events in Fars Province, the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model related to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and the latest series of climate scenario releases (SSP) were used after exponential downscaling using the LARS–WG statistical model. After exponential downscaling of the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures were predicted for the near-future period (2026-2055). Then, using the RClimdex package in R software, 14 climate extreme indices (7 temperature indices and 7 precipitation indices) were extracted for the base period and the near future. The results of the exponential downscaling of the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model output indicate an increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures of the near future period (2026-2055) compared to the base period (1991-2020) in all three stations and all three scenarios. The average precipitation values are also predicted to decrease at the Shiraz station and increase at the two Abadeh and Lar stations. The results of determining the trend in climate indices showed that the trend in temperature extreme indices is more noticeable than precipitation extreme indices. An increasing trend in hot extreme indices and a decreasing trend in cold extreme indices will occur in the near future period in Fars province. The frequency of extreme precipitation events also indicates an increase in the daily precipitation intensity index, an increase in the maximum one-day precipitation at the three Abadeh, Shiraz and Lar stations, and an increase in the number of days with heavy and very heavy precipitation at the two Abadeh and Lar stations. These conditions could indicate an increase in intense and short-term rainfall, as opposed to a shortening of the region's rainy season.
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