Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
- Mohammad Reza Sheykh Rabiee 1
- Hamid Reza Peyrowan 2
- Peyman Daneshkar Arasteh 3
- Mehry Akbary 4
- Baharak Motamedvaziri 5
1 1- Graduated with a PhD in Watershed Science and Engineering, Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University
2 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute
3 Associate Professor, Water Science and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University
4 Associate Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University
5 Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important challenges that affects natural ecosystems and different aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and knowing these effects quantitatively creates more preparation to deal with its consequences. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of climate change on the amount of runoff and sediment in the Karganrood watershed in Gilan province in Iran. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated by the SUFI-2 algorithm by improving the simulation results of discharge flow and basin sediment. Then, based on the current data of the Bandar Anzali synoptic station and with the help of CanESM5, MPI-ESM1.2-HR and NorESM2-MM climate models and using the SDSM6.1 microscale model to investigate the effects of climate change on the amount of runoff and sediment and under Two release scenarios named SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 and in three time periods 2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100 have been discussed. According to the results of evaluation and validation of climate models using NS, R2 and RMSE; the results showed that the CanESM5 climate model has the lowest error rate and the highest correlation in climate factors. The results of the CanESM5 model indicate that precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature will decrease in all future periods based on SSP2-4.5. Also, the examination of CanESM5 model results in connection with SSP5-8.5 shows that precipitation will decrease in all future periods and the maximum temperature will increase in the period of 2051-2075 and 2076-2100. The results of the SWAT model also showed that the runoff changes for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios will decrease in all future periods and the sediment changes will increase.
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