Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Member of the faculty of Mohaghegh Ardabili University
2 Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil city, Iran
Abstract
The importance of the issue is such that the United Nations has established an institution called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to monitor climate change at the global level and examine the role of human activities in climate change. Until now, climate models have developed many effective tools for climate simulations in the past and future periods. The sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) continues the pattern of evolution and compatible characteristics of the previous phases of CMIP, and the output of the models of the sixth report under the new scenarios are Socio-economic Pathways (SSPS) and it also provides different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP).First, in order to increase the accuracy of the results of climate models, the results of 12 climate models of the sixth report in the period from 1989 to 2019 were weighted based on the combined Kling-Gupta index (KGE) and based on the resulting ranks BCC-CSM2-MR models and MIROC6 respectively have the greatest ability in simulating temperature and precipitation of the historical period in all selected synoptic stations. In the following, the forecast results of the climate models under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the future period were calculated and finally the average changes of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation in the horizon of 2020 to 2100 were presented in the form of maps and diagrams.The results showed that in all emission scenarios, the annual temperature will increase and the annual precipitation will decrease. The annual maximum temperature in the selected stations will increase between 0.57 and 6.41 degrees Celsius and the annual minimum temperature will increase between 0.46 and 4.89 degrees Celsius and the precipitation will decrease between -2.3 and -9.18 percent.
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