Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Kerman, Iran.
2 Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.
Abstract
Today, land use change is considered as a challenge of environmental issues and known as an ecological problem. Land use changing is one of the most important parameters in planning over time. The purpose of this study is to detect land use changes in the Jiroft Basin in the years 1997, 2008, and 2018 and it’s predicting in 2040. For this, Landsat images were collected and the preprocessing steps, including atmospheric and radiometric corrections, were done by ENVI software. A false-color combination, as well as an NDVI vegetation index map, were prepared for these years. Land use maps were prepared by supervised classification using maximum likelihood algorithm. The land use changes evaluated by Land Change Modeler (LCM) in these periods. Finally, land use map for 2040 was predicted by the Markov chain and IDRISI software. According to the Kappa index, the exported maps showed an acceptable accuracy (>0.76). Land use changes between 2008 and 2018 showed that the urban areas, agricultural lands, gardens, salty lands, and barren area were increased, but rangelands and forests were decreased. In the coming years, it is expected that with the current management method, the urban areas, agriculture and barren area will increase, while forest, gardens, and rangeland areas will decrease. To reduce the land use change effects, it is recommended to act according to sustainable development by notice to the ecological potential of the land.
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