Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 MSc, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Agricultural and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The precipitation is important factor among climatic factors and factors that affect on hydrology and water balance of a watershed and prediction of its behavior is very important for ecosystem management and water resources. In this study, long-term precipitation threshold trend was assessed using Non-parametric statistical approaches (Spearman Rho, Kendall's Tau, Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope Estimator) and Homogeneity tests (Von Neumann, Buishand, Standard normal homogeneity and Pettitt) at eight synoptic stations during 1984 to 2013 in north-west Iran. According to the results of non-parametric and homogeneity tests, all precipitation thresholds had decreasing trend at 0.01 significant level and showed sudden descending changes at 0.05 significant level in Maragheh station. Mann-Kendall, Spearman and Kendall's Tau tests together provided similar results in all series that were different by Sen method results in some thresholds. These means that all precipitation thresholds have trend by 26% of non-parametric tests, in order to determine change point of precipitation thresholds. Buishand, Standard normal homogeneity and Pettitt tests provided similar results that were different with Von Neumann results in all thresholds. In this research, 25.92 percent of precipitation threshold was heterogeneous in the study area by studying these sudden changes. It was found that natural and unnatural factors including meteorological droughts or human factors have caused sudden changes in precipitation threshold.
Keywords
)