Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 SCWMRI
2 Tabriz university
3 Tabriz University
Abstract
Any change in the concentration of greenhouse gases will upset the balance between the components of the climate system. But, the change in the concentration of these gases and how they will affect in the future is unknown. To study the effects of climate change on different systems in the future, climate variables must first be simulated under changes in greenhouse gases (climate scenarios). There are several ways to do this, the most reliable of which is the use of climatic models. AOGCMs can simulate climate parameters globally in large scale, while these may not be suitable for small scales. One of the most important downscaling methods is dynamic methods that are based on increasing the resolution and analysis of planetary climate models. Here, in this research, climate change status in Karkheh River Basin where a major basin for water and agricultural yields is studied. For this purpose, the PRECIS model was used. PRECIS is an exponential dynamics downscaling model used to estimate the temperature and precipitation rates for the period of 2070 to 2100 under A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the results of climate change assessment under scenario A2, precipitation would increase up to 11% and up to five degree centigrade would rise in average maximum and minimum temperature while concerning B2 scenario, an increase in precipitation up to 7% and a rise in temperature rise up to three degree centigrade are estimated. However, under both the scenarios, despite, the fall’s precipitation is higher than the winter’s precipitation.
Keywords
- Abbaspour, K.C., M. Faramarzi, S. Seyed Ghasemi and H. Yang. 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resources Research, 45: 26-38.
2. Babaeian, I., Z. Nagafineik, Z. Zabolabasi, M. Habeibei, H. Adab and S. Malbisei. 2010. Climate change assessment over Iran during 2010-2039 by using statistical downscaling of ECHO-G Model. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 7(16): 135-152 (in Persian).
- Christensen, N.S., A.W. Wood, N. Voisin, D.P. Lettenmaier and R.N. Palmer. 2004. The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin. Climate Change, 62: 337-363.
4. Farajzadeh, M. 2013. Climate change effects on river discharge, case study: Sheshpir River. 24(1): 17-32
- Gasain, A.K., S. Rao and D. Basuray. 2006. Climate impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basin. Current Science, 90(3): 346-353.
- Georgi, F. and B. Hewitson. 2001. Regional climate information–evaluation and projections. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- Giorgi, F. 1990. On the simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. International Journal of Climatology, 3: 941–963
- Giorgi, F. and L.O. Mearns. 1999. Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(D6): 6335–6352.
- Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden and D. Xioaosu. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- 2007. Technical summary in climate change: impacts, adaptations and climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 572 pages.
- Jones, R.G., M. Noguer, D.C. Hassell, D. Hudson, S.S. Wilson, G.J. Jenkins and J.F.B. Mitchell. 2004. Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
12. Massahbavani, A.R. and S. Morid. 2005. Impacts of climate change on water resources and food production: a case study of Zayandeh Rood Basin. Iranian Water Resources Association, 1(1): 40-47.
13. Rahimi Bondarabadi, S., S. Jahanbakhsh Asl and B. Sari Saraf. 2016. Evaluation of a dynamical downscaling climate model for assessment of climate change in Karkheh Basin. Watershed Engineering and Management, 11(3): 633-649 (in Persian).
- Simmons, A.J. and D.M. Burridge. 1981. An energy and angular-momentum conserving vertical finite difference scheme and hybrid vertical coordinates. Monthly Weather Review, 109: 758–766.
- Stone, M.C., R.H. Hotchkiss, C.M. Hubbard and T.A. Fontaine. 2001. Impacts of climate change on Missouri River Basin water yield. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37(5): 1119-1129.
- Wang, B., I.S. Kang and J.Y. Li. 2004. Ensemble simulation of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. Climate, 17: 803–818.
- Zacharias, , S.N. Kumar, S.D. Singh, D.N. Swaroopa Rani and P.K. Aggarwal. 2015. Evaluation of a regional climate model for impact assessment of climate change on crop productivity in the tropics. Current Science, 108(6): 119-1126.
- Zohrabi, N., A. Massah bavani, A. Telvari and H. Sedghi. 2009. Determining the temporal trend in annual maximum flood series in the large Karoun River (Iran). 4th Regional Conference on Climate Change, Tehran.
)