Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Isfahan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Education Center
2 Gorgan University of Agriculture and Natural Resources
3 Gorgan University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gorgan
4 Kharazmi University
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important phenomena in recent years have been affected on natural resources and especially the communities whose livelihoods in relation to natural resources, as well as prediction of climate parameters in order to achieve future changes and regard to adaptations to deal with climate change is interest of researchers. Therefore, in this study with purpose of previous trend analysis and prediction of precipitation, mean minimum and maximum temperature were used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and General Circulation Models, HadCM3, respectively. For this purpose, the output data of HadCM3 with three scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 by LARS-WG model were downscale in Semirom region. The results showed that temperature parameters (mean temperature, mean minimum and mean maximum temperature) had increased trend in winter, autumn seasons and annual scale in six studied stations and temperature parameters showed different trend in spring and summer seasons and the annual precipitation is showed negative trend in most of the stations. Also, the results of minimum temperature prediction showed that minimum temperature will generally increase with three scenarios during 21 century and the largest increase in mean minimum temperature compared to the current period is observed in November with more than 0.8 °C increase. The maximum temperature prediction represents a change in the maximum temperature threshold and warming this century in all months of the year, except January and precipitation will increase in all months except June and September using all three scenarios.
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