Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Human Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Student, Faculty of Human Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran
Abstract
Predicting the temperature and precipitation changes is necessary for assessing the change in the future and to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture, environmental, economic and social issues. Accordingly atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed for simulation of climatic parameters. In this research, output data of HadCM3 general circulation model (with three climate change scenarios A1B, A2 and B1) were downscaled using LARS-WG Statistical Model in selected stations of the Urmia Lake Basin and Results has been evaluated and analyzed from three selected synoptic stations, including Saghez, Tabriz and Urmia stations in the base period (1961-1990) and the 2050 (2046-2065) for three variables minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation. In LARS-WG model analysis, evaluation of the amount of MSE, RMSE, MAE indexes were done and correlation coefficients were determined. The conclusion can be presented herein that: the model was fit for the region. The overall results for 20 years of 2050s, indicate a decrease of 12.1 percent in precipitation and also 1.3 Celsius degrees would be increased in temperature compared to the base period. In the study area, the highest maximum temperature increase would be in Tabriz synoptic stations and the highest minimum temperature and highest decries precipitation would occur in Urmia station. The results of this study would help enormous the policymakers and planners for water resources in the future.
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